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PRoofs that the number of Peo∣ple in the 134 Parishes of the London Bills of Mortality, without reference to other Cities, is about 696 thousand, viz.
I know but three ways of finding the same.
1. By the Houses, and Families, and Heads living in each.
2. By the number of Burials in healthfull times, and by the pro∣portion of those that live, to those that die.
3. By the number of those who die of the Plague in Pestilential years, in proportion to those that scape.
To know the number of Houses I used three methods, viz.
1. The number of Houses which were burnt Anno 1666, which by authentick Report was 13200; next what proportion the People who dy∣ed out of those Houses, bore to the whole; which I find Anno 1686, to be but 1/7 part, but Anno 1666 to be almost ⅕, from whence I in∣fer the whole Housing of London
Anno 1666 to have been 66 thou∣sand, then finding the Burials An∣no 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4, I pitch upon 88 thousand to be the number of Housing An∣no 1686.
2. Those who have been employ∣ed in making the general Map of London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year, they had found above 84 thousand Houses to be in London, where∣fore Anno 1686, or in 4 years more, there might be 1/10 or 8400 Houses more (London doubling in 40 years) so as the whole, Anno 1686 might be 92400.
3. I found that Anno 1685, there were 29325 Harths in Dub∣lin, and 6400 Houses, and in London 388 thousand Harths, whereby there must have been at that rate 87000 Houses in Lon∣don. Moreover I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16752 Harths, and 5307 Hou∣ses, and in London 388 thousand Harths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have been 123 thousand Houses in London, and at a Me∣dium between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105 thousand Houses.
Lastly, By Certificate from the Harth-Office, I find the Houses within the Bills of Mortality to be 105▪315.
Having thus found the Houses, I proceed next to the number of Families in them, and first I thought that if there were 3 or 4 Families or Kitchins in every House of Pa∣ris, there might be 2 Families in 1/10 of the Housing of London; un∣to which supposition, the common opinion of several Friends, doth concur with my own conjectures.
As to the number of Heads in each Family, I stick to Grant's observation in Page of his fifth Edition, That in Tradesmen of London's Families, there be 8 Heads one with another, in Fa∣milies of higher Ranks, above 10,
•…•…nd in the poorest near 5, accor∣•…•…ing to which proportions, I had •…•…pon another occasion pitch'd the medium of Heads in all the Fami∣lies of England to be 6⅓, but •…•…uitting the Fraction in this Case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for 6.
To conclude, the Houses of Lon∣don being 105315, and the addi∣tion of double Families 10531 more, in all 115846; I multiplied the same by 6, which produced 695076 for the number of the People.
I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and
both healthfull, did wonderfully a∣gree in their Burials, viz. 1684 •…•…hey were 23202, and Anno 1685 23222, the Medium whereof is 23212; Moreover that the Christ∣•…•…ings 1684 were 14,702, and •…•…hose Anno 1685 were 14730, •…•…herefore I multiplied the Medium •…•…f Burials 23212 by 30, supposing •…•…hat one dies out of 30 at London, •…•…hich made the number of People 696360 Souls.
Now to prove that one dies out •…•…f 30 at London, or thereabouts, 〈…〉〈…〉 say,
1. That Grant in the _____ _____ page of •…•…is fifth Edition, affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per
an. which is near the same propor∣tion.
2. I found that out of health∣full places, and out of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but 1 out of 50 among our Parliament men, and that the Kings of England ha∣ving reigned 24 years one with a∣nother, probably lived above 30 years each.
3. Grant, page _____ _____ hath shewn that but about 1 of 20 die per an. out of young Children under 10 years old, and Monsr. Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick at a Medium to the number 30.
4. In 9 Countrey Parishes lying in several parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath died per an. or 311 out of 11507, where∣fore till I see another round num∣ber, grounded upon many observa∣tions, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiply∣ing our Burials by 30, to find the number of the People, the product being 696, 360, and what we find by the Families they are 695, 076, as aforesaid.
It was prov'd by Grant, that ⅕ of the People died of the Plague, but Anno 1665 there died of the
Plague near 98 thousand persons, the Quintuple whereof is 490 thou∣sand, as the number of People in the year 1665, whereunto adding above ⅓, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total is 653 thousand, agreeing well enough with the other two Computations above mentioned.
Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in its place.
Memorandum, That 2 or 3 hundred new Houses would make a Contiguity of 2 or 3 other great Pa∣rishes, with the 134 already men∣tioned in the Bills of Mortality; and that an oval Wall of about 20 Miles in compass would enclose the
same, and all the Shipping at Dept∣ford and Black-wall, and would also fence in 20 thousand Acres of Land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advan∣tages to the Owners, and Inhabi∣tants of that Ground, as also to the whole Nation and Government.