Proceedings of the first Independence congress : held in the city of Manila, Philippine islands, February 22-26, 1930 / Published under the direction of Dean maximo M. Kalaw, executive secretary, University of the Philippines.

56 INDEPENDENCE CONGRESS PROCEEDINGS
would increase, but we should have time to adjust these expenses to our necessities and resources. If, however, the free
trade with the United States that we now have were to be
suddenly abolished one of these days, the economic life of our
country would suffer a disturbance and impairment that would
make itself felt in all phases of our collective and individual
life and in all sections of the Archipelago.
If we desire to study the economic problems incidental to
independence, we must, therefore, begin by examining the
effects of the abolition of free trade, because according to all
appearances, although political separation does not necessarily
involve the discontinuation of the present economic relations
between the two peoples, we must presume that simultaneously
with independence there will come, sooner or later, the abolition
of free trade, because the elements interested in it are precisely
a new powerful factor working for the emancipation of the
Islands.
However, the economic situation of a people depends upon
so many factors, internal as well as external, ordinary as well
as extraordinary, that we can only conjecture what that situation will be at any future time. But considering only the
usual factors each of us can make his own estimate as to what
will be the economic situation of the Islands upon the disappearance of the advantages of free trade for the Philippine
products.
The following is an estimate of the decrease in value of the
exports of the Philippine Islands upon the cessation of free
trade:
United Probable
Total States Decrease
Hemp................... P 53,187,212 P19,054,090 0
Coconuts:
Coconut oil............ 46,858,344 46,479,040 P46,479,040
Copra meal............ 5,772,274 717,706 5,772,274
Dessicated coconut...... 7,447,170 7,436,536 7,000,000
Copra................. 45,084,882 35,207,664 (48,000,000)
P105,282,470 P89,840,946 P10,251,314
Sugar................... 95,085,878 91,382,464 80,000,000