Proceedings of the first Independence congress : held in the city of Manila, Philippine islands, February 22-26, 1930 / Published under the direction of Dean maximo M. Kalaw, executive secretary, University of the Philippines.

ECONOMIC SECTION

49

not differ from that experienced in certain localities in the
United States when bodies of troops are transferred from one
place to another.
Aside from the economic factors, the physiological factor
must also be taken into consideration. The merchant is
always apprehensive of the least danger which may threaten
him with pecuniary loss. It is, therefore, quite natural that
during the first moments of the change in the political status
of the Philippines, the banks and merchants will be extremely
cautious and will limit their operations until they are better
acquainted with the new state of affairs and are surer of the
ground on which they are treading. We had that experience
in connection with the events of the Revolution against Spain
and the beginning of the American occupation of the Philippines. But experience also shows us that business is the first
to adapt itself to any new condition, and that after a brief
period of expectancy, the merchants did business with the
Revolutionists, the same as they did business later on with
the Americans in Manila and its environs, and with the Filipinos in the provinces. It is, therefore, to be expected that
any commercial stringency that will be experienced in the
Philippine Islands will soon be followed by a reaction, and
that business will continue to the greatest possible extent under
the new order of things.
On the other hand, the state of mind of the Filipino under
the inspiration of liberty and the consciousness of his responsibilities must also be taken into consideration. Those who saw
how the Filipinos conducted themselves during the ephemeral
life of the late Philippine Republic can testify to the immense
value of this psychological factor.
After reviewing the several elements which will likely influence our economic life, we shall make a resume of their
effects on our national income. From what we have said, it
is to be inferred that at the outset, our exports to the United
States will be reduced from P231,000,000 to probably
P104,000,000, a decrease of 46 per cent. This does not mean,
however, that our exports as a whole will go down in the
same proportion, because the natural thing for us to do will