Proceedings of the first Independence congress : held in the city of Manila, Philippine islands, February 22-26, 1930 / Published under the direction of Dean maximo M. Kalaw, executive secretary, University of the Philippines.

86 INDEPENDENCE CONGRESS PROCEEDINGS

will still be able to find other outlets. It is certain, however,
that the volume of our sugar exports would have to be greatly
reduced.
The probable effects of the loss of free trade upon our other
important exports may further be examined. Take tobacco.
In so far as leaf tobacco exports are concerned, no great loss
need be feared. The United States is not an important market
for Philippine leaf tobacco. Our exports of this product go
mostly to Spain, France, Holland, China, and Hongkong. In
the case of Manila cigars, however, the situation is different.
Almost 80 per cent of our yearly exports of this item are now
absorbed by the United States. But if we look again into the
markets for Manila cigars before the free trade was established,
we shall find that the United States did not then figure as an
important market, our cigars at that time being exported mostly
to Hongkong, British East Indies, China, and the United Kingdom. Of course, it should be noted also that the volume of
our cigar exports then was much less than it is at the present
time, and it will doubtless prove very difficult to market the
big quantity of cigars that would have to be shifted away from
the United States in the event of independence and the abolition of the free trade. It is not improbable, however, that
our cigars would still continue to be sold at least to some extent
in the American market on the momentum of its already wellearned reputation among American smokers and through the
extra efforts that our exporters would have to put forth to
overcome the tariff barrier that would then be placed against
them.
Coconut oil and embroideries would be less hopeful of satisfactory adjustment. Almost our entire exports of these articles
are being shipped only to the United States where they can
be sold now because of their duty-free privilege. Philippine
hats now enter other important markets besides the United
States, these being France, England, and Italy, and a wider
demand for the article in these and in other countries could
probably be created in the event that their present market in
the United States becomes restricted by the tariff. Maguey,
another important Philippine export, is, like hemp and copra,