Date of Publication

The rate of publication of print books has grown steadily over time. Figure 4 illustrates the distribution of books (manifestations) in the system-wide collection by year of publication. It is interesting to note the ebb and flow of book publication accompanying several important historical events, including a dramatic peak at the turn of the 20th century; troughs during the two World Wars and the Great Depression; and perhaps most importantly of all, the dramatic increase in publishing associated with the expansion of higher education and scientific research accompanying the start of the Cold War.

Figure 4: Print Manifestations by Year of Publication, 1800-2000
Figure 4: Print Manifestations by Year of Publication, 1800-2000

Cumulatively, the post-war increase in book publication is the dominating characteristic, as Figure 4 illustrates. Approximately half of all books held in the system-wide collection were published after 1977. The share of these books published prior to 1923 — a rough cut-off point for in-copyright vs. out-of-copyright materials, according to U.S. copyright law — is only 18%. Although the true share of out-of-copyright print books is undoubtedly higher than this due to non-renewal of copyright for books published prior to the 1976 copyright law changes, the key point to be drawn from this figure is that a date-based approach to copyright permissions is not likely to yield a high proportion of books for mass digitization.