The intimate papers of Colonel House arranged as a narrative by Charles Seymour.

468 INTIMATE PAPERS OF COLONEL HOUSE

his impressions of European affairs and emphasized the
gravity of the crisis which the American Government must
face.
Colonel House to the President
ROSLYN, LONG ISLAND
June 16, 1915
DEAR GOVERNOR:
The situation, as far as the Allies go, is not encouraging.
Much to their disappointment and to the surprise of the
Germans, they have not been able to make the progress
which they thought the spring and summer weather would
bring about. They have made two cardinal errors. One was
the attempt to force the Dardanelles by sea only. They
found this was impossible and, before they could send a land
force to cooperate with the fleet, the Turks under the direction of German officers had time to make the Straits almost
impregnable. They will finally get through, but at a terrible cost.i'
The second mistake was in not accelerating during the
winter months the manufacture of high explosives. When
the spring campaign opened and they attempted to storm
the German trenches, they found that they not only had insufficient ammunition, but what they had was of the wrong
kind. This mistake was more largely made by the English
than by the French.
The Germans, through their espionage system, evidently
knew the weakness of the Allies; consequently their great
concern regarding the munitions of war coming from America.
When I was in Berlin in March, it seemed to me that they
were talking nonsense when they said that if we would stop
the shipment of munitions the war would end within a short
time.
1 The prophecy was not fulfilled, for, although the cost was paid, the
Allied expedition withdrew from Gallipoli in the following winter.