The intimate papers of Colonel House arranged as a narrative by Charles Seymour.

GERMAN CONFIDENCE

455

The only thing that can gain the war for the Allies is universal service in England and the throwing into the balance of
at least two million new English troops. If the English knew
what the Germans have in store for England in case of success, the very dead in the graveyards would volunteer for the
war.
It is the German hope to keep the Lusitania matter 'jollied
along' until the American people get excited about baseball
or a new scandal and forget. Meantime the hate of America
grows daily.
As to food and even raw materials, the Germans have
enough for war purposes. They need raw materials for the
trades, but have everything needed for the manufacture of
munitions; and as they are spending all the money for war
supplies in their own country their financial situation is good
for the present. They expect some other country to pay the
cost of the war.
In governmental circles there is no talk of giving up Belgium. They want to keep it and exact great indemnities
from other countries.
They are building new and great submarines (2800 tons),
and are putting so many in the water that I think they will
soon become a serious menace to England. That is why a
great land army is necessary....
Will cable if anything comes up. Best wishes to Mrs. House.
Yours as ever
JAMES W. GERARD
If, contrary to expectations, Germany agreed to abandon
or modify the submarine warfare or if the crisis should be
tided over, House was equally desirous of being in the
United States and near the President, for in that case the dispute with Great Britain over the holding-up of American
cargoes would certainly become acute. The difference was
serious enough at best, and mutual misunderstanding threat