The intimate papers of Colonel House arranged as a narrative by Charles Seymour.

MEMORANDUM ON THE CAUSE OF THE WAR 281

conversations with the German Ambassador in London,
alarmed the war party and they took advantage of the
Archduke's murder and the Kaiser's absence to precipitate
matters, believing they were coming to the end of the passage
and that it was now or never.'
The hypothesis is interesting, not entirely conclusive.
Eight months afterwards House made a private memorandum, the gist of which accords in general with the opinions
of later historians who were able to study the German official
documents.
'April 15, 1915: I am often asked my views as to the cause
of the war [he wrote], and, while I never give them, I might
as well record them here.
'It is clear to me that the Kaiser did not want war and did
not actually expect it. He foolishly permitted Austria to
bring about an acute controversy with Serbia, and he concluded that by standing firm with his ally, Russia would do
nothing more than make a vigorous protest, much as she did
when Austria annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. The rattling of the scabbard and the shining armor were sufficient in
that case and he thought they would be in this, for the reason
that he did not believe Great Britain would go to war concerning such a happening in the Southeast. He had tried
England twice in the West and had found that he himself
must give way, and there was not much danger of his trying
it again where England was involved. But in this instance he
thought Germany's relations with England had improved to
such an extent that she would not back Russia and France
to the extent of making war on Germany.
'And he went so far in what might be termed "bluff"
that it was impossible at the last-moment to recede because
the situation had gotten beyond him. He did not have the
foresight to see the consequences, neither did he have the
foresight to see that the building up of a great war machine