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CHAP. XXII.
How uncertain the judgments of most People are, in things of greatest importance.
HOw false and erroneous the opinions of men are, all persons can testifie who have any conversation in their Counsels; which unless managed by persons of more than ordinary sagacity, are for the most part contrary to the truth. And because men of these excellent qualifications, in corrupted States (especially in times of peace) by reason of the envy or ambition of other people, are subject to be hated; such Counsels are fre∣quently followed, as the deluded Commons think best, or such as are recommended by those who are more solicitous of the favour, than the benefit of the people: But their errors being discovered in the time of their adversity, necessity directs them to those per∣sons whom in the time of prosperity they dispised, as shall be shown at large in conve∣nient place. Moreover humane consultations are subject to certain accidents by which men are frequently deluded, unless their experience be more than ordinary, which acci∣dents are apt by their likelyhood and probability to persuade people to whatever they de∣sire. This I mention, in consideration of the advice of Numisius the Proetor (after the Latins were defeated by the Romans) and of what was not long since generally believed when Francis I. of France invaded Milan, which was defended by the Swizzers. For Lewis XII. being dead, and Francis d' Angolesme succeeding in that kingdom, he had a great design of recovering Milan, which not many years before had been taken from them by the Swizzers, at the encouragement of Iulius II. To facilitate his Enterprize, he made it his business to gain a party in Italy, and having made sure of the Venetians, he addressed himself to the Florentines, and Pope Leo X. conceiving it would be a great corroboration to his affairs if he could make them, seeing the Forces of the King of Spain were in Lom∣bardy, and the Emperours at Verona. Pope Leo could not be brought to consent, being persuaded (as is said) by his Counsel, that if he kept himself Neuter, he should be cer∣tain of Victory; for it was not for the interest of the Church, that either the King of France, or the Swizzers should be too potent in Italy; but he who would restore it to its ancient Liberty, must deliver it from the servitude both of the one and the other: And because both of them together were not to be dealt withal, nor indeed either of them a∣part, as things stood then; occasion was to be expected, and they were to attend till the King of France and Swizzers had fought, and one of them beaten the other, and then before the Conquerour had recruited, or recovered what he had lost in the Battel, the Pope and his Friends should fall upon him, and so both of them be expulsed. It was impossi∣ble he should ever have a fairer opportunity; for the Enemy were both of them in the Field, and the Popes Army strong upon the borders of Lombardy (under pretence of secu∣ring the Territories of the Church) where it might attend the event of the Battel, which the vigor, and strength of both Armies portended would be bloody, and when they had destroyed one another, and were both of them weaken'd, then might his Army fall securely upon them, possess it self of Lombardy, and govern all Italy as he pleased himself. These were the Counsels which were given his Holiness, and at first they seemed solid enough, but how vain they prov'd afterwards, the event did clearly demonstrate; for the Swizzers after a long and bloody Fight being defeated the Popes and the King of Spains Forces were so far from taking that opportunity of falling upon the French (as they had promised them∣selves) That they prepared to run away, nor would that have secured them, had not they been befriended by the humanity (not to say laziness) of the King of France, who con∣tenting himself with one Victory, never regarded a second, but strook up a Peace with the Pope: And truly at a distance these Counsels seem'd not unreasonable, though in reality they were irrational and idle; for the Conqueror seldom loses many men, what he loses is in the Fight, and the greatest part of the execution is in the pursuit; but grant a Battel is a long time before it be decided (which notwithstanding happens but seldom) and that many are slain and disabled of the conquering side, yet the reputation of Victory gives the Con∣queror such esteem, and strikes such awe and terror into all people, as transcends the consi∣deration of any loss he can sustain: so that he is in an egregious error, who thinks a victo∣rious Army may be the more easily overcome by reason of the prejudice it received in the Fight; for 'tis madness to attempt such an Army with a less number, than you would have engaged it before; because their late fortune will add to their courage. This appeared by