HIV Vaccines - Accelerating the Development of Preventive HIV Vaccines for the World: Summary Report and Recommendations of an International Meeting

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effects emerge), and have been based on the sub-type of HIV found in the US and Europe (i.e.,
greater likelihood of receiving a return on investment).
The meeting participants concluded that the current level of investment in research and
development on preventive HIV vaccines was insufficient given the future health, humanitarian,
social, and economic costs of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The investment of additional resources
was viewed as potentially making a significant difference, especially if targeted at the critical gaps
in current development efforts.
3 Obstacles to developing and making HIV vaccines available
3.1 Obstacles to vaccine development
In the industrialized countries, vaccine development is almost exclusively a commercial enterprise.
The resources, expertise and experience for product development, preparation for licensure
application, and manufacturing lie predominantly in the private sector. As a result, whatever
research priorities are set by the public sector, the ultimate decision to develop and manufacture
a vaccine for general use rests in the hands of the private sector and, in particular, the large
vaccine companies, most of which are also large pharmaceutical companies.
The decision to invest in the development of a new product reflects a careful assessment of a
variety of external and internal factors that determine the opportunity costs of investing in the
product, the risks involved in developing and marketing the product, and its potential profitability.
Three key external factors are the state of science, the size of the market, and the public policy
environment. Internal factors include the skills base of the company, and the fit with the current
research and development portfolio.
In the case of HIV, the current level of investment by the private sector suggests that, at present,
industry does not regard the development of a preventive HIV vaccine as a very attractive
commercial enterprise. The opportunity costs of investing in the vaccine are not insignificant - the
development of an HIV vaccine will almost certainly require a substantial investment of financial
and human resources over an extended period of time. The risks are also great. There is no
guarantee that a preventive HIV vaccine can be developed, and even if a company did develop a
vaccine the size of the market and the price the market will bear are both uncertain, as are the
potential liability costs.
State of the science
The rapid scientific advances made in the last decade provide the essential underpinning for
efforts to develop preventive HIV vaccines. There is, however, no guarantee that it will be
possible to develop a preventive vaccine, and in the interim there are a number of important
scientific challenges that need to be met (see Section 2.1). These uncertainites make investing in
an HIV vaccine a risky prospect.