The Relationship between the Human Immunodeficiency Virus and the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (Draft)

DRAFT
Worldwide, 985,119 cases of AIDS were reported to the World Health Organization
(WHO) through June 1994, an increase of 37 percent since June 1993 (WHO, 1994a).
However, because of a lack of systematic surveillance and reporting in underdeveloped areas,
these figures represent a small proportion of the true world total. The WHO estimates that
more than 4 million cases of AIDS had occurred by early 1994, and that 17 million people
worldwide have been infected with HIV since the beginning of the epidemic (WHO, 1994b,c).
Between August 1993 and August 1994, the WHO estimates that 3 million people were
infected with HIV, with one million of the new cases in southeast Asia (Merson, 1994).
By the year 2000, the WHO estimates that 30 to 40 million people will have been
infected with HIV, and that 10 million people will have developed AIDS (WHO, 1994b). The
Global AIDS Policy Coalition has estimated that the real figures may be considerably higher--
perhaps up to 110 million HIV infections and nearly 25 million AIDS cases by the tum of the
century (Mann et al., 1992a).
Conclusion
The evidence for HIV's primary role in the pathogenesis of AIDS is discussed more
thoroughly in several reviews (Essex, 1994; Fauci, 1993a; Greene, 1993; Levy, 1993; Weiss,
1993). In addition, many scientists (Blattner et al., 1988a, 1988b; Ginsberg, 1988; Evans,
1989, 1989b; Weiss and Jaffe, 1990; Gallo, 1991a; Goudsmit, 1992; Groopman, 1992; Kurth,
1990; Ascher et al., 1993a,b; Schechter et al., 1993; Lowenstein, 1994; Nicoll and Brown,
1994) have responded to specific arguments from individuals who assert that AIDS is not
caused by HIV.
HIV and AIDS have been repeatedly linked in time, place, and population group; the
appearance of HIV in the blood supply has preceded or coincided with the occurrence of AIDS
cases in every country and region where AIDS has been noted. Among individuals without
HIV, AIDS-like symptoms are extraordinarily rare, even in populations with many AIDS cases.
Individuals as different as homosexual men, elderly transfusion recipients, heterosexual

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