New ILO Study Warns of HIV/AIDS ‘catastrophe’ for Workers and Employers

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International Labour Organization

New ILO study warns of HIV/AIDS "catastrophe"
for workers and employers
Report prepared for launch of new ILO programme on HIV/AIDS in the world of work calls
for urgent action by governments, workers and employers
Wednesday 7 June 2000
GENEVA (ILO News) - In the first study of its kind, the International Labour Office (ILO) warns of
catastrophic consequences of HIV/AIDS for workers and employers worldwide, projecting a severe decline
in the size and quality of the workforce in a number of countries over the next 20 years.
"Surveillance information indicates that sub-Saharan Africa is the worst affected area and needs to be the
focus of urgent action," the report HIV/AIDS: A threat to decent work, productivity and development * said.
"Data and trends from other regions, however, indicate that effective and large-scale preventive
interventions are required to avoid similar catastrophes elsewhere."
The report is to be discussed at a Special High-Level Meeting on HIV/AIDS and the World of Work, to be
held on 8 June at the Organization's 88th International Labour Conference in Geneva. Addressing the
plenary session will be Dr. Sam Nujoma, President of the Republic of Namibia; ILO Director-General Juan
Somavia; Dr. Peter Piot, Executive Director of the Joint United nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
(UNAIDS); and Ms. Mercy Elizabeth Makhalemele, Founder of the National Women's Alive AIDS
Network of South Africa.
The meeting will also see the formal signing of a ILO/UNAIDS Cooperation Framework Agreement.
Severe impact in hard-hit countries
Based on an analysis of population data from Botswana, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Cote D'Ivoire, Haiti,
Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda and
Zimbabwe, the ILO said there would be about 24 million fewer workers in those countries alone in the year
2020 as a result of the AIDS epidemic.
In eight African countries with HIV prevalence rates higher than 10% of the adult population - Botswana,
Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe - the ILO study said the
labour force in the year 2020 will be an estimated 10 to 22% smaller than it would have been if there had
been no HIV/AIDS - or about 11.5 million fewer. The percentage declines by country were: Botswana (21),
Kenya (15), Malawi (13), Mozambique (19), Namibia (22), South Africa (17), Uganda (12) and Zimbabwe
(21).
In the case of countries with HIV prevalence rates below 10% of the adult population - Cameroon, Cote
D'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nigeria, Thailand and the United Republic of Tanzania - the labour force is
expected to be between 3 and 9% smaller (except in Thailand, where the difference is just over 1%) than it
would have been without HIV/AIDS, or a total of about 12.5 million fewer persons. Percentage declines by