Report on the Global HIV/AIDS epidemic

Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic - June 2000
Figure 8. Trends in mortality among children under five years old and
end-1999 adult HIV prevalence rate, selected African
countries, 1981-1996
110%
105 %0 Zambia
II HIV prevalence 19.9%
00. 100%--
o 95 % -
E
LO Kenya
HIV prevalence 14.1%
= 90%
85 % - CHIV prevalence 7.7%
c! 85 % HIV prevalence 7.7%
a)

80 o/

| | | |! I I!!

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International, USA
By 1997, 15-year-old boys faced a much bleaker prospect: half could expect to die
before the age of 50. The situation was just as bad for women: the likelihood of a 15 -year-old dying before the end of her reproductive years quadrupled from around
11% in the early 1980s to over 40% by 1997.
Figure 9. Probability of a Zimbabwean boy aged 15 dying before
age 50, trends over time, various national surveys

0
35
0
)
O)
0
15
0
OC
C,
0

60 -55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

O~reports from surviving siblings
--death registration
-O - household reports of death
2000

U

1980

1985

1990

1995

Source: Feeney G, 1999 (unpublished data)

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