New UN Report Estimates Over One-Third of Todays 15-Year-Olds Will Die of AIDS in Worst-Affected Countries

Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), and released today in advance of the
Xlith International AIDS Conference being held in Durban, South Africa, from 9 to 14 July.
Speaking at the release of the report in Geneva, Peter Piot,, Executive Director of UNAIDS,
warned: "The AIDS toll in hard-hit countries is altering the economic and social fabric of society.
HIV Will kill more than one-third of the young adults of countries where it has its firmest hold, yet
the global response is still just a fraction of what it could be. We need to respond to this crisis on
a massively different scale from what has been done so far."
Long-term demographic Impacts threaten social stability
In developing countries, where HIV transmission occurs mainly through unsafe sex between men
and women, the majority of infected people acquire HIV by the time they are in their 20s and 30s
and, on average, succumb to AIDS around a decade later. The resulting decrease in the
productive workforce and proportional increase in citizens in the oldest and youngest age groups --
those most likely to require aid from society -- is becoming a key contributor to social instability.
* So far, a total of 132 million children under 15 have lost their mother or both parents to
AIDS since the epidemic began.
* The epidemic is undermining basic learning in certain parts of Africa: diminishing funds for
school fees, forcing young people into the workforce earlier, and claiming the lives of
teachers well before retirement age. In C6te dlvoire, 7 out of 10 teacher deaths are due to
HV. In 1998, Zambia lost 1300 teachers in the first ten months of the year - equivalent to
two-thirds of the new teachers trained each year.
* Agriculture, which in many developing countries provides a living for as much as four-fifths
of the population, is suffering serious disruption. In West Africa, for example, reduced
cultivation of cash crops and food products is reported.
* Business is already seeing the impact of AIDS on their bottom line. On an agricultural
estate in Kenya, new AIDS cases and health spending showed a massive ten-fold increase
over a recent 8-year period.
* Increased demand for health care for HIV-related illness is taxing overstretched health
services, In countries from Thailand to Burundi, HIV-positive patients are occupying
40470% of the beds in big city hospitals At the same time, the health sector is increasingly
losing its own human resources to AIDS. One study in Zambia found a 13-fold increase in
deaths in hospital staff, flargely due to HIV, over a ten-year period.
"Because of AIDS, poverty is getting worse just as the need for more resources to curb the spread
of HIV and alleviate the epidemic's impact on development.is growing. It's time to make the
connection between debt relief and epidemic relief', said Dr Piot. "Developing countries, who carry
95% of the HIVAIDS burden, owe in total around US$ 2 trillion. But Africa is the priority because
this is the region with the most HIV infections, most AIDS deaths, and the vast majority of the
world's heavily indebted poor countries."
"African governments are paying out four times more in debt service than they now spend on
health and education, if the international community relieves some of their external debt, these
countries can reinvest the savings in poverty alleviation and AIDS prevention and care. If not,
poverty will just continue to fan the flames of the epidemic."
HIV infection rates continue to Increase in many countries

In sub-Saharan Africa, where the most severe epidemics are to be found, UNAIDS and the World
Health Organization (WHO) estimate that some 24,5 million adults and children are now living with