Reports on HIV/AIDS: 1990

FEBRUARY 9, 1990, MMWR, Vol. 39, No. 5, PP. 81-86
York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles (5). Possible reasons for this observation
include actual declines in the incidence of HIV infection, perhaps due to the success
of prevention programs; the effect of treatments that delay progression of HIV
disease; and a decrease in the completeness of reporting (5,6).
Since routine screening of donated blood for HIV antibody began in 1985,
transmission of HIV through blood transfusions has become rare (7). Transfusionassociated AIDS now occurs predominantly among persons who received transfusions before screening began. Occurrence of such cases has leveled or possibly
begun to decline, demonstrating the effectiveness of screening.
Increases in diagnosed cases were greatest for groups with little or no evidence of
reductions in HIV incidence, such as IVDUs and associated groups (i.e., persons
infected with HIV by heterosexual contact and perinatal transmission). Even though
AIDS cases are heavily concentrated in the largest cities, the epidemic is increasingly
affecting smaller communities.
References
1. Karon JM, Devine OJ, Morgan WM. Predicting AIDS incidence by extrapolating from recent
trends. In: Castielo-Chavez C, ed. Mathematical and statistical approaches to AIDS epidemiology: lecture notes in biomathematics. Vol 83. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1989.
2. CDC. Revision of the CDC surveillance case definition for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. MMWR 1987;36(no. 1S).
3. Chambers JM, Cleveland WS, Kleiner B, Tukey PA. Graphical methods for data analysis.
Belmont, California: Wadsworth International Group, 1983:91-104,121-3.
4. Selik RM, Buehler JW, Karon JM, et al. Impact of the 1987 revision of the case definition of
acquired immune deficiency syndrome in the United States. J AIDS 1990;3:73-82.
5. Berkelman R, Karon J, Thomas P, Kerndt P, Rutherford G, Stehr-Green J. Are AIDS cases
among homosexual males leveling? [Abstract]. V International Conference on AIDS. Montreal, June 4-9, 1989:66.
6. Gail MH, Rosenberg PS, Goedert JJ. Therapy may explain recent deficits in AIDS incidence.
J AIDS 1990 (in press).
7. Ward JW, Holmberg SD, Allen JR, et al. Transmission of human immunodeficiency virus
(HIV) by blood screened as negative for HIV antibody. N EngI J Med 1988;318:473-8.

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