Reports on HIV/AIDS: 1990

NOVEMBER 30, 1990, MMWR, Vol. 39, RR-16 [inclusive page numbers]
86,000 AIDS cases diagnosed in 1992 would be reported (Table 4; note that the
original 1988 projections have been adjusted to agree with the current estimate that
85% of all diagnosed cases are reported). These decreases in the projections reflect
the slowing of AIDS incidence since early 1987 (Figure 1).
Predictions after 1990 are especially uncertain because there is little information on
the duration of the effect of therapeutic interventions (e.g., the use of zidovudine and
P. carinii pneumonia prophylactic therapy by symptomatic persons before AIDS is
diagnosed, the time[s] at which these treatments began to be used extensively, or the
number of persons treated). In particular, the range of predictions includes the
roughly linear trend in cases seen during the last 2 years (Figure 1), but that linear
trend is in the lower half of the range for predicted annual incidence. This comparison
suggests that the change in the trend of AIDS cases during 1987 might be temporary,
with AIDS incidence increasing more rapidly within the next several years than it has
during the last 2 years.
Survival of persons with AIDS
The number of deaths from AIDS is projected to increase through 1993 (Tab!es B2,
B3). As of September 1990, 23,500 persons with AIDS were known to have died in
1989, compared with 19,000 known to have died in 1988 and 15,100 known to have
died during 1987. On the basis of delays in reporting deaths during September
1987-September 1990, the reported number of deaths during 1989 is likely to reach at
least 27,000. The number of deaths reported for persons with previously reported
AIDS is projected to increase to 45,000-64,000 in 1993 (53,000-76,000 after adjustment
for underreporting). The number of persons who have AIDS and are still living is also
projected to increase through 1993 (Tables B2, B3).
TABLE B2. Projected numbers of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases
diagnosed and numbers of deaths before adjustments for underreporting, United
States, January 1989-December 1993*
AIDS cases
Year New casest Alive' Deaths'
1989 37,000-42,000 78,000-83,000 26,000-29,000
1990 44,000-48,000 94,000-103,000 32,000-36,000
1991 47,000-60,000 108,000-129,000 37,000-44,000
1992 50,000-72,000 118,000-159,000 41,000-54,000
1993 52,000-83,000 128,000-191,000 45,000-64,000
Cumulative
total
through
1993** 330,000 -405,000 240,000-290,000
*Projections are for AIDS cases that will be reported to CDC and for deaths among these persons
(not adjusted for cases never reported).
tNumber of cases diagnosed in that year.
IPersons with AIDS alive during the year.
"Deaths among persons diagnosed as having AIDS.
**Rounded to the nearest 5,000. Includes an estimated 102,000 AIDS cases diagnosed through
1988 that will be reported to CDC and 61,000 deaths among these patients.

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