Bronze Reporter [Volume: 1, Issue: 20]

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Page Eight

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THE BeONee. REPORTER |

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Saturday, A;

You, Your Union and Your Community...

Speaking rlationally; today we
have 3,500,000 unemployed and
the number will probably increase
to more than 4,000,000. This

' prospect frightens the wits out

of politicians, releases demands
from labor leaders, catalyses pre
~ parations for government action

and ~ mobilize counter action by
American ~business. Nevertheless,
most economists would still insis:
that we don~t have génuine depression unless business difficuity
is- general, business failures increase sharply, and unemployntent
And
all of these would have t6 continue for more than, 24 months
to earn the name depression. How
absurd! 9+

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What are we going through?
An inventory adjustment?) A
rolling adjustment? |A downturn?
An easing off? A lull? Drop? A
levelling off, as See; Mitchell told
us when he was here in Flint-for
the GOP rally in February? Are
we experiencing ajdip?. Recession? Or is it a depression?

Unhappily, -there | is~ little consistency in the tetms used by
economists and ~business men, and
often politicians destroy whatever shred Of coherent meaning
exists. Almost everybody refers
to the period between -1929-33 as
a depression and the late tal
and virtually all of | ithe 1940's
prosperity.

The problem is cbhfdinds d further by the fact that some of the
terms of fairly recent invention.
The events cf 1937 were called
recession, in the days before the
great depression, they would have
been called panic or depressien.
What is called recession in 1954
would~ have been. donsideied, ir
1939, undreamed of) prosperity.

Is any definition of terms then
possible? Maybe so with some
understandable qualifications. We
must understand that there is a
desire among politicians not to
disturb the psychology of both
the business men and the general
public. The word |.~adjustment~
which they have coined in recent
days is certainly more reassur
ing than the word ~ ~recession~ and

nobody ever again wants to hear
the word ~depression.~ Politicians
know as well as you and I that serious unemployment is bad politics.

Whatever terms are used, they

Lcan~t tell the story of any given

individual. His own position, his
income, his spending pattern may
be quite different fiom the broad
national averave. Moreover, the
over-all statistics themselves ~are
not ~beyond dispute, ' The recent

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~revision in the method of comput
ing the nations unemployment reveals this difficulty.

The lack cf.a job: is always serious for the individual. It is so
serious that his view of the economic situation is) not always objective or comprehensive, as illustrated by a slightly worn observation. That is when the fellow next door or in the next town
like Detroit or Saginaw loses his
job, it~s a reeession. When you
lese yours, it~s a| depression.

Seriously though, -vhile it.
obvious that no individual~s plight
makes a preblem| at the nationa!
~Tlevel, it is equally obvious that a
number of individuals with a common plight does become a national-vroblem that calls for remedial
action.

is

What that number is( no one
will officially say.. Any,.number
would be attacked at once as too
high and too low, Besides there
is something absurd about an. official -putting himself into,~ or
near, the position of sayinz that
4,999,999 unemployed: is not a
national problem,| but 5,000,000 is

However, there is a sort of
line that some officials regard as
the edge of the trouble zone. That
zone is reached when six out of
is out of &
job. The country is on ~the edge
of that margin now.

The Census Bureau looks at it
this way: On any given day they
find a certain number cf. people
are out of work.| A month later
the same ~number are out of work
but: they are mostly~ differerit
persons. So since we or they have
a turnover they)! claim there
no mass distress. The sample
of 25,000 households. used to ~be
spread over 68 communities.. Recently the Bureau. decided to run
a test sample in 230 communities.
but polled the same number of
households.

March is~or was thé kev month
in the- business | of employment
economics, and President ~ Fisenhower made it more so with his
mid-February press conference remarks that if unemployment con
is

tinued to increase in that month
it would be a warning that called

for a fresh counter attack.
~ Are we heading for a depression or do we have one?

The experts in| and out of government would ike to wait and

see April and May figures, as
well~ as those for March, -to tell
what the trend fis. Meanwhile.

dear unemployed! brother and sis-|~

ter, tighten your belts while nrices
remain ooo and live off air ~_
hot air, that is.

Unemployment) is supposed te
drop in March flor seasonal reasons. It goes like this: Unemployment usually rises in January
and February, reflecting the end
of the high Thanksgiving-Christmas retail and Post Office activity, the low ebb of the farm cycle,
the similar contraction in outdoor business activity such as
logging, and the seasonal slump
in~ construction and road. building. ~

By March, unemployment
normally reduced by increased
activity in all these lines, even in
agriculture. Seansona!ly there is

1S

no rise in unemployment after
that until, the June and July influx. of students) into the labor
market. |

~However, this holding the line

will not work. |If not. another
job was lost and not another person laid off, unemployment would
still rise in the absence 6f a growth cf the economy. The population is growing land that means
the number of persons available

\for work is growing tdo, nearly

700,000 a year. Eithe r the econ
/omy must expand or the unem
ployment rolls will.

The growing concern of hoa: |
sands of people} is recorded by
meeting unions and laber councils have been holding all over
the state. The | politicians
watching this going concern
and well they might be -too. For
politically this trend can well be
their swan song.

are).

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