Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln. Volume 2.
Lincoln, Abraham, 1809-1865.
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Page  476

1858 Campaign Strategy [1]

[July ? 1858]

House of Representatives---Old districts.

Let all the districts go, as desparate, from one to five inclusive; seven and eight; ten and eleven; fifteen to twenty inclusive; twentythree; twentyeight, to thirty inclusive---

Struggle for the following.

Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.

6th District 1

Randolph 1292 709 546 1399 996

546

----

1255 1255 996

---- ---

37 nett against us 403 nett against us.

Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller

9 District 1

Wabash 481 122 485 480 545

White 1062 27 845 1080 804

---- --- ---- ---- ----

1543 149 1330 1560 1349

149

---- ----

1479 1479 1349

---- ----

64 nett against us. 111 [sic] nett

against us.

Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.

12 District 2

St. Clair 1728 1996 973 1731 2936

973

----

2969

1728 1731

---- ----

1241 nett for us. 1205

nett for us.

Buc. Free. Fill Moore. Miller

13 District

1 Clinton 840 161 362 834 514

Bond 607 153 659 623 785

---- --- --- --- ---

1447 316 [sic] 1021 1457 1299

----

311 [sic]

1332 1332 1299

---- ----

115 nett against us. 158 nett against us.

14. District 2

Madison 1451. 1111 1658. 1489 2689

1111

----

2769

1451 1489

---- ----

1318 nett nett

for us. for us. 1200

Page  47722. District 1

Jersey 702 387 530 705. 907

Calhoun 391 70 163 463 239

--- --- --- ---- ----

1093 457 693 1168 1146

457

----

1150

1093 1146

---- ----

57 nett 22 nett against us.

for us.

24. District 1

Edgar 1342 952 308 1337 1250

308

----

1260 1260 1250

---- ----

82 nett against us. 87 nett against us.

25. District 1

Coles 1178 783 796 1303 1278

Moultrie 432 154 305 439 450

---- --- ---- ---- ----

1610 937 1101 1742 1728

937

----

2038

1610 1728

---- ----

428 nett 14 nett against us.

for us.

26. District. 2

Sangamon 2745 1174 1612 2597 2450

1174

----

2786

2475 2450

---- ----

311 nett 147 nett against us.

for us.

27 District 2

Morgan Scott 1656 963 885 1664 1827

843 183 536 853 678

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

2499 1146 1421 2517 2505

1146

2567

2499 2505

---- ----

68 nett 12 nett against us.

for us.

31. District 1 Hancock. 2011 1120 999 2011 2091

999

----

2119

2011 2011

---- ----

108 nett for us. nett for us. 80

32 District 1 Mc. Donough 1370 590 864 1382 1406

590

----

1454

1370 1382

---- ----

84 nett nett for us.

for us. 24

33. District 2

Fulton 2724 2021 898 2806 2642

898

----

2919

2724 2642

---- ----

195 nett 164 nett against us.

for us---

Page  47834 1 Cass. 914 303 438 923 898

Menard 854 109 668 863 768

---- --- ---- ---- ----

1768 412 1106 1786 1466 [sic]

412

----

1518 1518 1466

---- ---- ----

250 nett against us. 320 nett against us.

35. 1 Mason 737 267 553 740 794

Logan 823 655 484 840 1116

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

1560 922 1037 1580 1910

922

----

1959

1560 1580

---- ----

399 nett nett for us. 330

for us.

36 1 Macon 821 500 393 866 804

DeWitt 679 623 378 691 973

Piatt 310 85 350 362 380

Champaign550 732 236 553 887

---- ---- ---- ---- ---

2160 1940 1357 2492 [sic]

3044

1357

----

3297

2160 2492

---- ----

1137 nett for us. nett for us 552

38 1 McLean 1517 1937 560 1654 2299

560

----

2497

1517 1654

----- ----

980 nett for us. nett for us. 645

39 1 Tazewell 1313. 1028. 757 1337 1418.

757

----

1785

1313 1337

---- ----

472 nett for us. 41 [sic]

nett for us

41 2 Peoria 2459 2082 391 2459 2380

Stark. 353 718 152 357 870

---- ---- --- ---- ----

2812 2800 543 2816 3250

543

----

3343 3343. 2816

---- ----

nett for us. 531 nett for us. 434

The 37th. 40th. 42nd. and all upward we take without question.

Recapitulation

Democrats certain--- 19 districts with 22 representatives.

Republicans certain 19 districts with 27 do.

Questionable 20 districts with 26 do.

Page  479Taking the Moore & Miller [2] vote as a test, and 14 of the questionable go to the democrats, and 12 to the republicans, making the whole stand

Democrats 36

Republicans 39.

Taking the joint vote of Fremont and Fillmore against Buchanan, as a test, and the whole will stand

Democrats 27

Republicans 48.

By this, it is seen, we give up the districts numbered 1.2.3.4.5.7.8.10.11.15.16.17.18.19.20.23.28.29.& 30, with 22 representatives---

We take to ourselves, without question 37.40.42.43.44.45.46.47.48.49.50.51.52.53.54.55.56.57.& 58. with 27 representatives---

Put as doubtful, and to be struggled for, 6.9.12.13.14.21.22.24.25.26.27.31.32.33.34.35.36.38.39& 41. with 26 representatives

Of these put as doubtful, taking the Moore & Miller vote as a a [sic] test, the 6.9.13.21.22.24.25.26.27.33.& 34 with 14 representatives are against us, which added to the 22 certain against us makes → 36--- By the same test the 12.14.31.32.35.36.38.39.&41. with 12 representatives, and for us, which added to the 27 certain for us makes 39---

Taking the joint vote of Fremont & Fillmore against Buchanan as a test; and the 21.22.25.26.27.&33. with 9 representatives are brought over to our side---raising us to 48 & reducing our adversary to 27---

Recapitulation--- [3]

37 1 6 1

40 1 9 1

42 1 13 1

43 2 21 1 1

44 1 22 1 1

45 3 24 1

46 2 25 1 1

47 1 26 2 2

48 1 27 2 2

49 1 33 2 2

50 1 34 1

51. 2

Page  48052 1

53 1

54 2

55 1

56 2

57 2

58 1

--

[Senate]

Fight on the old districts---and first, as to Senators.

We already have Judd, Parks, Cook[,] Henderson, and Vanderen. [4] 5

No trouble to re-elect Gage, Talcott, Adams & Addams. [5] 4

---

So many certain 9.

We must struggle for, first:

Gillespie's district,

Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.

Bond 607 153 659 623 785

Madison 1451 1111 1658 1489 2689

Montgomery 992 162 686 1003 844

--- ---- ---

3003 4318

----

1426 1426

----

4429

----

3050 3050 3115 3115

---- ----

1379 nett for us. 1203 nett for us

Palmer's district.

Buc. Free. Fill Moore. Miller.

Greene 1565 245 719 1620 825

Jersey 702 387 530 705 907

Macoupin 1778 823 1010 1813 1771

---- ---- ---- ----

4045 2259 4138

----

1455 1455 3503 3503

---- ----

3714 3714 635 nett against us.

----

331 nett against us

Watson's district

Buc. Fre. Fill Moore. Miller

Coles 1178 783 796 1303 1278

Cumberland 641 246 235 683 404

Edgar 1342 952 308 1337 1250

Vermilion 1111 1506 194 1112 1670

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

4272 3487 1533 4435 4602

1533

----

5020

4272 4435

---- ----

748 nett for us 167 nett for us.Page  481Fuller's district.

Buc Fre. Fill Moore. Miller

Cass 914 303 438 923 698

Logan 823 655 484 840 1116

Mason 737 267 553 740 794

Menard 854 109 668 863 768

Tazewell 1313 1028 757 1337 1418

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

4641 2362 2900 4703 4794

2362

----

5262

4641 4703

---- ----

621 nett for us. 91 nett for us

Arnold's district

Buc Free Fill. Moore Miller.

Marshall 834 1008 115 839 1010

Putnam 307 532 115 329 637

Peoria 2459 2082 391 2459 2380

Woodford 747 596 189 794 731

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

4347 4218 810 4421 4758

810

----

5028

4347 4421

---- ----

681 nett for us. 337 nett for us

Rose's district.

Buc Fre. Fill. Moore Miller.

Hancock 2011 1120 999 2011 2091

Henderson 610 757 153 616 904

Schuyler 1369 388 570 1379 946

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

3990 2265 1722 4006 3941

1722

----

3987 3987 3941

---- ----

3 nett against us 65 nett against us.

Desparate. Sutphen's district

Buc Fre. Fill Moore. Miller

Calhoun 391 70 163 463 239

Pike 2163 1053 1010 2210 2012

Scott 843 183 536 853 678

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

3397 1306 1709 3526 2929

----

1306

3015 3015 2929

---- ---- ----

382 nett against us. 597 nett against us.

Desparate. Carlin's district

Buc Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.

Adams 3311 2226 662 3318 2897

Brown 903 169 433 901 586

---- ---- ---- ---- ----

4214 2395 1095 4219 3483

1095

----

3490 3490 3483

---- ----

724 nett against us. 736 nett against us.

Kuykendoll's district.

No use in trying.

Democrats hold over in all the remaining districts.

Page  482

Annotation

[1]   AD, owned by Mrs. Edna Orendorff Macpherson, Springfield, Illinois. The eight pages of manuscript were preserved among the papers in the Lincoln & Herndon office and came into the possession of Alfred Orendorff, Herndon's partner in later years. There is no certainty as to the precise date on which Lincoln calculated the possible results of the election and formulated his strategy, but the letter to Joseph Gillespie, July 16, infra, indicates that Lincoln's calculation was made by this time. The manuscript is accompanied by a newspaper clipping which tabulates the Illinois election returns of November 4, 1856, from which Lincoln took his figures.

[2]   John Moore and James Miller were the Democratic and Republican candidates for state treasurer, respectively.

[3]   The next page of manuscript is merely the columns of figures as given.

[4]   Norman B. Judd, G. D. A. Parks, Burton C. Cook, Thomas J. Henderson, and Cyrus W. Vanderen were re-elected according to Lincoln's expectation.

[5]   George Gage, Wait Talcott, and Augustus Adams failed of re-election; John H. Addams was re-elected.

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