1858 Campaign Strategy [1]
House of Representatives---Old districts.
Let all the districts go, as desparate, from one to five inclusive; seven and eight; ten and eleven; fifteen to twenty inclusive; twentythree; twentyeight, to thirty inclusive---
Struggle for the following.
Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.
6th District 1
Randolph 1292 709 546 1399 996
546
----
1255 1255 996
---- ---
37 nett against us 403 nett against us.
Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller
9 District 1
Wabash 481 122 485 480 545
White 1062 27 845 1080 804
---- --- ---- ---- ----
1543 149 1330 1560 1349
149
---- ----
1479 1479 1349
---- ----
64 nett against us. 111 [sic] nett
against us.
Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.
12 District 2
St. Clair 1728 1996 973 1731 2936
973
----
2969
1728 1731
---- ----
1241 nett for us. 1205
nett for us.
Buc. Free. Fill Moore. Miller
13 District
1 Clinton 840 161 362 834 514
Bond 607 153 659 623 785
---- --- --- --- ---
1447 316 [sic] 1021 1457 1299
----
311 [sic]
1332 1332 1299
---- ----
115 nett against us. 158 nett against us.
14. District 2
Madison 1451. 1111 1658. 1489 2689
1111
----
2769
1451 1489
---- ----
1318 nett nett
for us. for us. 1200
Page 47722. District 1
Jersey 702 387 530 705. 907
Calhoun 391 70 163 463 239
--- --- --- ---- ----
1093 457 693 1168 1146
457
----
1150
1093 1146
---- ----
57 nett 22 nett against us.
for us.
24. District 1
Edgar 1342 952 308 1337 1250
308
----
1260 1260 1250
---- ----
82 nett against us. 87 nett against us.
25. District 1
Coles 1178 783 796 1303 1278
Moultrie 432 154 305 439 450
---- --- ---- ---- ----
1610 937 1101 1742 1728
937
----
2038
1610 1728
---- ----
428 nett 14 nett against us.
for us.
26. District. 2
Sangamon 2745 1174 1612 2597 2450
1174
----
2786
2475 2450
---- ----
311 nett 147 nett against us.
for us.
27 District 2
Morgan Scott 1656 963 885 1664 1827
843 183 536 853 678
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2499 1146 1421 2517 2505
1146
2567
2499 2505
---- ----
68 nett 12 nett against us.
for us.
31. District 1 Hancock. 2011 1120 999 2011 2091
999
----
2119
2011 2011
---- ----
108 nett for us. nett for us. 80
32 District 1 Mc. Donough 1370 590 864 1382 1406
590
----
1454
1370 1382
---- ----
84 nett nett for us.
for us. 24
33. District 2
Fulton 2724 2021 898 2806 2642
898
----
2919
2724 2642
---- ----
195 nett 164 nett against us.
for us---
Page 47834 1 Cass. 914 303 438 923 898
Menard 854 109 668 863 768
---- --- ---- ---- ----
1768 412 1106 1786 1466 [sic]
412
----
1518 1518 1466
---- ---- ----
250 nett against us. 320 nett against us.
35. 1 Mason 737 267 553 740 794
Logan 823 655 484 840 1116
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
1560 922 1037 1580 1910
922
----
1959
1560 1580
---- ----
399 nett nett for us. 330
for us.
36 1 Macon 821 500 393 866 804
DeWitt 679 623 378 691 973
Piatt 310 85 350 362 380
Champaign550 732 236 553 887
---- ---- ---- ---- ---
2160 1940 1357 2492 [sic]
3044
1357
----
3297
2160 2492
---- ----
1137 nett for us. nett for us 552
38 1 McLean 1517 1937 560 1654 2299
560
----
2497
1517 1654
----- ----
980 nett for us. nett for us. 645
39 1 Tazewell 1313. 1028. 757 1337 1418.
757
----
1785
1313 1337
---- ----
472 nett for us. 41 [sic]
nett for us
41 2 Peoria 2459 2082 391 2459 2380
Stark. 353 718 152 357 870
---- ---- --- ---- ----
2812 2800 543 2816 3250
543
----
3343 3343. 2816
---- ----
nett for us. 531 nett for us. 434
The 37th. 40th. 42nd. and all upward we take without question.
Recapitulation
Democrats certain--- 19 districts with 22 representatives.
Republicans certain 19 districts with 27 do.
Questionable 20 districts with 26 do.
Page 479Taking the Moore & Miller [2] vote as a test, and 14 of the questionable go to the democrats, and 12 to the republicans, making the whole stand
Democrats 36
Republicans 39.
Taking the joint vote of Fremont and Fillmore against Buchanan, as a test, and the whole will stand
Democrats 27
Republicans 48.
By this, it is seen, we give up the districts numbered 1.2.3.4.5.7.8.10.11.15.16.17.18.19.20.23.28.29.& 30, with 22 representatives---
We take to ourselves, without question 37.40.42.43.44.45.46.47.48.49.50.51.52.53.54.55.56.57.& 58. with 27 representatives---
Put as doubtful, and to be struggled for, 6.9.12.13.14.21.22.24.25.26.27.31.32.33.34.35.36.38.39& 41. with 26 representatives
Of these put as doubtful, taking the Moore & Miller vote as a a [sic] test, the 6.9.13.21.22.24.25.26.27.33.& 34 with 14 representatives are against us, which added to the 22 certain against us makes 36--- By the same test the 12.14.31.32.35.36.38.39.&41. with 12 representatives, and for us, which added to the 27 certain for us makes 39---
Taking the joint vote of Fremont & Fillmore against Buchanan as a test; and the 21.22.25.26.27.&33. with 9 representatives are brought over to our side---raising us to 48 & reducing our adversary to 27---
Recapitulation--- [3]
37 1 6 1
40 1 9 1
42 1 13 1
43 2 21 1 1
44 1 22 1 1
45 3 24 1
46 2 25 1 1
47 1 26 2 2
48 1 27 2 2
49 1 33 2 2
50 1 34 1
51. 2
Page 48052 1
53 1
54 2
55 1
56 2
57 2
58 1
--
[Senate]
Fight on the old districts---and first, as to Senators.
We already have Judd, Parks, Cook[,] Henderson, and Vanderen. [4] 5
No trouble to re-elect Gage, Talcott, Adams & Addams. [5] 4
---
So many certain 9.
We must struggle for, first:
Gillespie's district,
Buc. Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.
Bond 607 153 659 623 785
Madison 1451 1111 1658 1489 2689
Montgomery 992 162 686 1003 844
--- ---- ---
3003 4318
----
1426 1426
----
4429
----
3050 3050 3115 3115
---- ----
1379 nett for us. 1203 nett for us
Palmer's district.
Buc. Free. Fill Moore. Miller.
Greene 1565 245 719 1620 825
Jersey 702 387 530 705 907
Macoupin 1778 823 1010 1813 1771
---- ---- ---- ----
4045 2259 4138
----
1455 1455 3503 3503
---- ----
3714 3714 635 nett against us.
----
331 nett against us
Watson's district
Buc. Fre. Fill Moore. Miller
Coles 1178 783 796 1303 1278
Cumberland 641 246 235 683 404
Edgar 1342 952 308 1337 1250
Vermilion 1111 1506 194 1112 1670
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4272 3487 1533 4435 4602
1533
----
5020
4272 4435
---- ----
748 nett for us 167 nett for us.Page 481Fuller's district.
Buc Fre. Fill Moore. Miller
Cass 914 303 438 923 698
Logan 823 655 484 840 1116
Mason 737 267 553 740 794
Menard 854 109 668 863 768
Tazewell 1313 1028 757 1337 1418
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4641 2362 2900 4703 4794
2362
----
5262
4641 4703
---- ----
621 nett for us. 91 nett for us
Arnold's district
Buc Free Fill. Moore Miller.
Marshall 834 1008 115 839 1010
Putnam 307 532 115 329 637
Peoria 2459 2082 391 2459 2380
Woodford 747 596 189 794 731
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4347 4218 810 4421 4758
810
----
5028
4347 4421
---- ----
681 nett for us. 337 nett for us
Rose's district.
Buc Fre. Fill. Moore Miller.
Hancock 2011 1120 999 2011 2091
Henderson 610 757 153 616 904
Schuyler 1369 388 570 1379 946
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
3990 2265 1722 4006 3941
1722
----
3987 3987 3941
---- ----
3 nett against us 65 nett against us.
Desparate. Sutphen's district
Buc Fre. Fill Moore. Miller
Calhoun 391 70 163 463 239
Pike 2163 1053 1010 2210 2012
Scott 843 183 536 853 678
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
3397 1306 1709 3526 2929
----
1306
3015 3015 2929
---- ---- ----
382 nett against us. 597 nett against us.
Desparate. Carlin's district
Buc Fre. Fill. Moore. Miller.
Adams 3311 2226 662 3318 2897
Brown 903 169 433 901 586
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4214 2395 1095 4219 3483
1095
----
3490 3490 3483
---- ----
724 nett against us. 736 nett against us.
Kuykendoll's district.
No use in trying.
Democrats hold over in all the remaining districts.
Page 482Annotation
[1] AD, owned by Mrs. Edna Orendorff Macpherson, Springfield, Illinois. The eight pages of manuscript were preserved among the papers in the Lincoln & Herndon office and came into the possession of Alfred Orendorff, Herndon's partner in later years. There is no certainty as to the precise date on which Lincoln calculated the possible results of the election and formulated his strategy, but the letter to Joseph Gillespie, July 16, infra, indicates that Lincoln's calculation was made by this time. The manuscript is accompanied by a newspaper clipping which tabulates the Illinois election returns of November 4, 1856, from which Lincoln took his figures.
[2] John Moore and James Miller were the Democratic and Republican candidates for state treasurer, respectively.
[3] The next page of manuscript is merely the columns of figures as given.
[4] Norman B. Judd, G. D. A. Parks, Burton C. Cook, Thomas J. Henderson, and Cyrus W. Vanderen were re-elected according to Lincoln's expectation.
[5] George Gage, Wait Talcott, and Augustus Adams failed of re-election; John H. Addams was re-elected.
