The Relationship of Fantasy Football Participation with NFL Television Ratings

Abstract

An estimated 30 million people participate in fantasy football leagues, yet little academic research has been conducted on this topic. While there are many factors that can contribute to the television rating of a sports event, this study asks if fantasy football participation can serve as an additional motivating factor for fans to watch National Football League (NFL) games on television. Results provide some evidence that games with more NFL players starting in a high percentage of fans’ fantasy football leagues have higher Nielsen ratings, although there are differences for the games on NBC vs. ESPN, percentage of starting fantasy players, teams’ combined winning percentage, and closeness of game.

Keywords:

Fantasy Sports, NFL, Television Ratings

Fortunato, J. A. (2011). The relationship of fantasy football participation with NFL television ratings. Journal of Sport Administration & Supervision 3(1), 74-90. Published online September, 2011.

Introduction

Fantasy football, where fans compile player statistics from actual professional games to compete against opponents in their fantasy matchups, continues to be a phenomenon with an estimated 30 million people participating in fantasy leagues (Pucin, 2009). According to Nielsen Media Research more than 1.2 billion minutes were spent on fantasy websites in 2008 (Kimball, 2008). Despite these fantasy sports participation statistics, Baerg (2009) points out that little academic research has been conducted on this topic.

The purpose of this study is to examine whether fantasy football participation can serve as an additional motivating factor for fans to watch National Football League (NFL) games on television. The primary research question is: does a game having more NFL players that are starting in a high percentage of fans’ fantasy football leagues lead to an increase in that game’s television rating? To address this question this study analyzed the relationship between games that featured NFL players starting in a high percentage of fantasy leagues for that particular week and the television rating for the games that were televised on NBC’s Sunday Night Football and ESPN’s Monday Night Football. There are several factors that can contribute to the television rating of a sports event, therefore, it must be clearly noted that it is not being argued here that fantasy football participation is the dominant factor influencing viewing, but rather testing to see if there is a relationship between fantasy football participation and viewing NFL games on television. Because there are so many factors that can influence a television rating, the variables of teams’ combined winning percentage and margin of victory in the game are also analyzed in comparison to the television rating for the NFL games on NBC and ESPN.

The issue of audience motivations for media use has long been discussed in the mass communication literature. In the specific context of motivation of media use for sports content, researchers have identified the unknown outcome of the game as the motivating factor that most influences the behavior of watching. For sports fans, another major motivation is seeing favorite teams and players win or teams and players they do not like lose (e.g., Gantz, 1981; Wann, Schrader, & Wilson, 1999; Wenner & Gantz, 1998; Zillman, Bryant, & Sapolsky, 1989). Therefore, the unknown outcome of fans’ favorite team’s games influences the behavior of viewing their games on television. These researchers, however, were only evaluating fans’ motivations to watch these games based on their results factoring into the actual, real-life sports league standings. The question that emerges is: couldn’t these same motivations for watching teams and players win or lose extend to the unknown outcome of fans’ games in their fantasy football leagues? Could the unknown outcome of fans’ fantasy team’s games influence the behavior of viewing NFL games on television?

Literature Review

Some of the seminal works in the field of mass communication try to account for the motivational factors in the media use behavior of the audience (e.g., Blumler & Katz 1974; Katz, Blumler, & Gurevitch 1974; Rosengren, Wenner, & Palmgreen 1985). Rubin (1984, 2002) identifies two media-use orientations toward a medium and its content that are based on audience motives, attitudes, and behaviors: (1) ritualized media use and (2) instrumental media use. Ritualized media use focuses on how people use their leisure time and which medium they attend to when multiple media options are available. In ritualized media use the tendency is to use the medium regardless of the content.

Instrumental media use focuses on purposive exposure to specific content and is more intentional and selective on the part of the individual audience member (e.g., Rubin, 1984, 2002). It is the content available through a particular medium at a particular time that motivates the media use behavior. In the context of sports content this instrumental mass media use can be a factor in a person organizing his or her day so as to be done with any other activities and be available to watch the game live at the time it is being played.

Television networks attempt to tap into both the ritualized and instrumental media use orientations by aligning certain programming with the leisure time of their desired audience (e.g., Fortunato, 2008). The NFL and its television partners have created a consistent programming schedule for the times that NFL games are played to capitalize on the ritualized nature of television viewing (Sunday afternoon at 1:00 and 4:00 est., Sunday night, Monday night, and a few games on Thursday night or Saturday night at the end of the season on the NFL Network). The NFL and its television partners then try to schedule the best teams and the best players to participate in the televised games, especially the games in prime-time, as the means to help increase the instrumental viewing component (e.g., Fortunato, 2008).

Several researchers have examined the motivational factors for the media use behavior of the audience in the very specific context of sports (e.g., Trail, Anderson, & Fink, 2000; Trail & James, 2001; Wann & Branscombe, 1993; Wenner & Gantz, 1998). It is the characteristics of the sports audience that make the motivational factors of this group’s media use unique. The sports audience has been described as very loyal and watching sports has been found to satisfy emotional needs (e.g., Gantz & Wenner, 1995; Mullin, Hardy, & Sutton, 2007; Wann, et. al., 1999; Zillmann et. al., 1989). Wenner and Gantz (1998) point out “concerns with seeing ‘who wins’ and how one’s ‘favorite does’ are among the strongest individual motivations for sports viewing. These tend to combine with the enjoyment that comes with experiencing the ‘drama and tension’ and the excitement of ‘rooting’ for a player or team to win” (p. 236).

Zillmann, Bryant, and Sapolsky (1989) recognize the sports fans desire to see their favorite teams win and that fans also display emotions towards teams they do not like in their disposition theory of sportsfanship. The disposition theory claims that enjoyment of watching sports contests and athletic excellence, “depends to some extent, at least, on the particular person displaying such excellence, and on the particular team to which this person belongs. People applaud great play on the part of their favorite athletes and teams. The same excellence, the same mastery of skills, seems to be far less appreciated, possibly even deplored, when it is exhibited by disliked athletes or resented teams” (p. 256). For example, fans in Green Bay will applaud the skills of Packers quarterback Aaron Rogers, but now deplore the similar skills of a player they once cheered, former Packer quarterback and current member of the Minnesota Vikings, Brett Favre. Along with an obvious interest in watching their favorite team’s games, in applying the disposition theory of Zillmann et. al. (1989), Fortunato (2004) also found that fans have a strong interest in watching games when their favorite team is not playing, but the outcome of the game has an impact on their favorite team’s position in the league standings.

These theoretical concepts of ritualized and instrumental viewing, the unknown outcome of the game, or seeing how a favorite team or player performs were, however, only described in motivating the audience to watch actual, real-life sports events. This paper applies these motivations to fans watching football on television because of their fantasy football participation. Fans now might be motivated to watch NFL games to root for the players on their fantasy team. Or, in applying the disposition theory, fans might be motivated to watch the game to root against an NFL player on a fantasy team that they are competing against that week or a game that features an NFL player who is on a fantasy team that is in the same division in their fantasy league. It is still the unknown outcome of the game, the concern for seeing how players perform, and the fans’ desire to win that serve as the motivating factor in an instrumental media use behavior of the audience.

Research Questions

In accessing whether fantasy football participation can serve as an additional motivation to watch NFL games, the primary research question is:

• Research Question One: Does a game having more NFL players that are starting in a high percentage of fans’ fantasy football leagues lead to an increase in that game’s television rating?

  Trying to determine if there is a relationship between the variable of NFL players starting in fantasy leagues with that game’s television rating is important because it provides some measure of the cultural impact of fantasy sports as well as the passion and media use behavior of fantasy football participants.

  To provide a more comprehensive analysis and acknowledge that the factors of team’s combined winning percentage and margin of victory also have a relationship with the television rating of a sports event, the following research questions are also identified:

• Research Question Two: Does a game between teams with higher winning percentages lead to an increase in that game’s television rating?
• Research Question Three: Does a game between teams with higher winning percentages lead to an increase in the number of NFL players starting in fans’ fantasy football lineups?
• Research Question Four: Does a game between teams with higher winning percentages from the 2008 season lead to an increase in the game’s television rating when those teams played in 2009?
• Research Question Five: Does a game with a smaller margin of victory lead to an increase in that game’s television rating?

Method

To respond to these research questions, correlations were conducted between NFL players starting in fantasy football leagues for that particular week and the television rating for that particular game. The NFL games that were broadcast on NBC’s Sunday Night Football and ESPN’s Monday Night Football during the 2009 regular season are chosen because they are played at a time when there is no competition from other NFL games and these games are televised to the entire country. The games on Sunday afternoon televised on Fox or CBS are in many instances regionalized broadcasts with each city seeing the game of its local team. Using the NBC Sunday night games and ESPN Monday night games provide a sample size of 33 games.

Results

Correlations

Discussion

In continuing to focus on the question of audience motivations for mass media use as articulated by many scholars, as well as responding to the need for more scholarly inquiry into the influence of fantasy sports as expressed by Baerg (2009), the purpose of this study is to examine whether fantasy football participation can serve as an additional motivating factor for fans to watch NFL games on television. The results presented here do provide some evidence that there is a relationship between NFL players starting in a high percentage of fantasy leagues for that particular week and the television rating for that particular game. In responding to the primary research question, games with more NFL players starting in a high percentage of fans’ fantasy football leagues can lead to an increase in that game’s rating (with variations by NBC or ESPN, and by the threshold of 90 percent or 50 percent).

Some explanation for the difference in results between the NBC and ESPN samples can be provided by examining the specific games. The NBC games only had statistically significant results for NFL players starting in over 90 percent of fantasy leagues when correlated with both rating, and winning percentage. The two games with the highest rating and winning percentage (New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts) also had the most NFL players starting in over 90 percent of fantasy leagues. This was not the case when applying the measure of NFL players starting in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues. Of the three games on NBC with the highest number of NFL players starting in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues, Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, and Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, only the Dallas at Philadelphia game was among the top three rated, with the Arizona at New York game being the lowest rated game of the season on NBC. Of these three games, none are in the top five of highest winning percentage.

For the ESPN games there is more continuity between the measures of NFL players starting in both 90 percent and 50 percent of fantasy leagues when correlated with both rating, and winning percentage. The two games with the highest rating and winning percentage (Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints) had the most NFL players starting in both 90 percent and 50 percent of fantasy leagues.

There are several factors that can contribute to the television rating of a sports event. It is certainly not being proffered here that the fantasy football is the only factor influencing the television rating. The evidence here shows that games between teams with higher winning percentages can lead to an increase in the television rating for both the NBC and ESPN sample. This relationship is not surprising as games between good teams could draw the casual fan and create the instrumental viewing component that is so important for increasing the television rating. It is also not surprising that there is a relationship between team winning percentage and the number of NFL players starting in a high percentage of fantasy leagues as the great players who often score or throw touchdowns that help their NFL teams win are the same players who help fantasy football teams win as well.

The 2008 combined teams’ winning percentage and the rating for the game between those teams in 2009 was important to examine because the prior season’s result is used as a critical factor in evaluating if the team will have any of its games played in prime-time. For NBC, once the week seventeen game between Cincinnati and the New York Jets was eliminated, a game that NBC flexed into because of its playoff implications, there was a statistically significant correlation between the 2008 combined teams’ winning percentage and the rating for the game between those teams in 2009. ESPN was not as successful in predicting which matchups would produce a higher rating based on the prior season’s results as there was not a statistically significant correlation between the 2008 teams’ combined winning percentage and the television rating for its 2009 televised games.

Margin of victory is the most difficult variable to predict prior to the game being played, but there was evidence from the NBC games that the closer the score of the game, the higher the game’s rating. The margin of victory variable was not statistically significant for the games on ESPN. The margin of victory measure for NFL games might not be as important for some fans who are more concerned with the outcome of their fantasy football game. Fans might not care if the New Orleans Saints are beating the New England Patriots by 21 points as they continue to watch to see if Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints quarterback, throws another touchdown pass.

There were certain games where there was the perfect combination of teams with high winning percentages, many players starting in fantasy leagues, and a small margin of victory. For example, the game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts on NBC featured seven players starting in greater than 90 percent of fantasy leagues (Colts: Peyton Manning, 97 percent; Reggie Wayne, 99 percent; Dallas Clark, 98 percent. Patriots: Tom Brady, 98 percent; Randy Moss, 100 percent; Wes Welker, 99 percent; Stephen Gotskowski, 97 percent), the teams had a combined winning percentage of 88 percent, and the game was decided by one point. The New England at Indianapolis game had a rating of 13.7, fifteen percent higher than the 11.6 average rating for the games on NBC.

There were other plausible, common-sense explanations that can be made for each rating beyond the influence of NFL fantasy players starting in fantasy leagues, teams’ winning percentage, margin of victory, and outlier games that were provided here. First, the 2009 NFL schedule was made before Brett Favre announced his return to football to play for the Minnesota Vikings. The first game that Favre played against his former team, the Green Bay Packers, was the highest rated game for ESPN. The highest rated game on NBC, the New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys, featured the first regular season NFL game at the new Cowboys Stadium. The week seven NBC game between the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Giants that received only a 9.1 rating, although having eleven players starting in greater than 50 percent of fantasy leagues, was televised directly against the New York Yankees playing in game six of the American League Championship Series (ALCS). The game on Fox televising the Yankees winning the ALCS had more viewers than the football game, receiving a 9.3 rating. Finally, the week eight ESPN game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints that had a rating of 7.7 was broadcast directly against game five of the World Series between the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies, which received a rating of 10.6.

The popularity of the NFL on television is undeniable. Super Bowl XLIV between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts was the most viewed program in the history of television with 106.5 million viewers (Nielsen Media Research; http://sportsmediawatch.blogspot.com, February 8, 2010). For the 2009 regular season, all of the NFL’s television partners had increases in their ratings: CBS, 10.4 average, increase four percent; ESPN, 9.0 average, increase eighteen percent; Fox, 11.4 average, increase nine percent; NBC, 11.7 average, increase fifteen percent; NFL Network, 3.1 average, increase 35 percent (Nielsen Media Research; http://sportsmediawatch.blogspot.com, January 9, 2010). It is also worth noting that no games on NBC or ESPN were less than two standard deviations away from the ratings’ mean for the games on their respective networks. There were, however, three games higher than two standard deviations away from the ratings’ mean: NBC’s New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys game, and ESPN’s Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings game and New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints game. This shows the NFL television ratings to be consistently good, and when conditions present themselves very good.

Implications

With the results presented here providing some evidence that in certain circumstances fantasy football participation can be a variable that influences viewership of NFL games, there are some implications that need to be considered. First, the NFL should use the attraction of fantasy football and the appeal of certain players as another variable in putting together its television programming schedule of games. The development of the television programming schedule is the first part of putting together the entire game schedule. The development of the programming schedule is a challenge for the NFL because it has multiple broadcast partners who all desire the most attractive games. It should also be noted that the NFL has been very successful in its scheduling practices as in 2009 all of its broadcast partners had an increase in their television ratings. Still, it would be irresponsible of any sports league not to try to improve an important component of its overall business strategy, such as television ratings.

As noted, it is difficult to predict in April which will be the good teams and which will be the compelling matchups during the regular season. In fact, using the teams’ records from the previous season was not a predictor of television ratings for the games on ESPN. There might, however, be more predictability as to which players will be on a high percentage of fantasy football teams. While some of the these players will obviously be on the teams predicted to have winning seasons based on past seasons’ performances (i.e., Peyton Manning and the Colts), other players might be on losing teams but could still make that team’s games more attractive for fans because of their fantasy ownership. For example, Maurice Jones Drew, owned in a high percentage of fantasy leagues, might make the Jacksonville Jaguars a more attractive team to televise than even teams from bigger markets such as the Cleveland Browns or the Denver Broncos that do not have any players that are popular with fantasy football participants. This could especially be important for ESPN in its selection of games because it features a wider variety of teams in its games. In 2009 25 different teams appeared on ESPN games, as compared to NBC which only had 18 different NFL teams play in the games that it televised. So while it is certainly not being argued here that fantasy football is the dominant variable in audience viewership, it is being suggested that fantasy football should be another variable that is used by networks and the league in creating its programming schedule.

As an example of fantasy football not being the dominant variable, the week seven NBC game between the Giants and the Cardinals was the lowest rated game of the season for NBC because it was airing directly against a Yankees’ playoff game. Therefore, another consideration for the NFL in creating its programming schedule should be to try to avoid putting teams from cities where there is the potential conflict with the Major League Baseball playoffs. Again, there is no way to predict this conflict will not occur with absolute certainty. However, in putting the Giants on prime-time television during the baseball playoffs, considering the Yankees have only missed the playoffs once since 1995, there is a greater chance of a conflict and thus lower ratings for the NFL game. There is some predictability of Major League Baseball teams not being competitive and the NFL can avoid this conflict of competition within a city. For example, the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t had a winning record since 1992 and the Kansas City Royals have only had a winning record once since 1993. Scheduling the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Kansas City Chiefs would eliminate the conflict of competition from a playoff baseball game being televised with teams from the same city. The NFL could even eliminate any chance of a conflict during the baseball playoffs in the same market by scheduling NFL teams from cities in which there isn’t a Major League Baseball team. Cities with currently successful NFL teams with popular fantasy players such as Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Tennessee could be used in prime-time games during the weeks of the baseball playoffs.

The broadcasters of NFL games could also cater their telecasts more to the fantasy football audience. CBS updates players’ statistics of those involved in the game that is being televised after each play on the top of the screen. At the bottom of the screen CBS also has a crawl of scores and players’ statistics from the other games being played around the league. The NFL’s other broadcast partners, however, update the players’ statistics with much less frequency. Another possible broadcast initiative would be to have fantasy analysts as part of the networks’ pregame shows offering tips on which NFL players fantasy participants should and should not start in their fantasy games.

For a league that earns $3.75 billion in broadcast revenue per year (the current broadcast contracts expire after the 2013 season) the more people watching and the more motivations that they have to watch the NFL will lead to further economic growth for the league. So while prior to the increase in fantasy football participation researchers identified fans were most motivated by the unknown outcome of the game and to watch their favorite teams win, the motivation to watch the NFL players that help their fantasy team win could now serve as an additional motivation, or even for some the primary motivation, that can create an instrumental media use to watch NFL games. This study only samples one season and 33 games so further examination of any fantasy football impact on television ratings needs to be conducted before larger conclusions can be drawn. This study can also be easily replicated and trends of the impact of fantasy football participation better learned. However, a fan of the Green Bay Packers may not have an intrinsic interest in watching a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins as the outcome of the game has no impact on the Packers’ standings. That fan, however, may have Peyton Manning as the starting quarterback in his or her fantasy lineup (or he is starting in the opponent’s lineup) and cares if he throws a touchdown pass and the amount of passing yardage he compiles.

For a whitepaper summary of this article, visit: http://www.jsasonline.org/home/v3n1/whitepaper/Fortunato-wp.pdf

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John A. Fortunato, Ph. D., is an associate professor at Fordham University in the School of Business, Area of Communication and Media Management. He is the author of Commissioner: The Legacy of Pete Rozelle.